Why Coal Remains a
Stubborn Part of Our Energy Mix
By Matt Mackowiak
Manager, Government Affairs CONSOL Energy
It’s been 18 years since Al Gore gave us The Inconvenient Truth and its dire warnings of climate catastrophe. The documentary film helped to catapult CO2 emissions into the collective consciousness of mainstream society and spearhead a global push for renewable energy.
As a result, since 2006, trillions of dollars have been invested, both directly and through government subsidies, into wind and solar power technologies, carbon offsets programs, and NGOs trying to rid the Earth of fossil fuels. The environmental industry is still booming, but is it actually delivering on its promise of saving the planet? How will our renewable energy policies be changed by the incoming administration? Can they stand up to the harsh light of reality?
It’s Time to Rate the Performance of Renewables.
Are wind and solar power worth the investment? Well, the answer would depend on what you measure. And since reducing the global usage of fossil fuels was the declared purpose of the renewable energy movement, let’s measure that first.
After spending tens of trillions globally on renewable energy over the past 20 years, as of 2023, the world has realized only a 3.8% reduction in fossil fuel usage, as a percentage of all energy produced,[1] from approximately 86% in 1995 to 82% in 2022. Over this same time period, the overall use of fossil fuels around the world has actually increased an astounding 41%, with coal use up approximately 55%.[2] In fact, according to the International Energy Association, worldwide demand for coal reached a record high in 2023, exceeding 8.5 billion metric tons for the first time in history.[3] Once again, a shocking reality to most observers, especially in the midst of an existential climate crisis.
If we look at reducing global CO2 emissions as our measuring stick, the picture’s not much better. Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry are projected to reach a record high of 37.55 billion metric tons in 2023. Up from approximately 30 billion metric tons in 2006 and up roughly 60 percent since 1990.[4]
The Immutable Laws of Supply and Demand
As energy markets continue to be circumvented with artificial subsidies and incentives for renewables, the full consequences of energy inflation are looming large. However, we might not be waiting long to experience the results. PJM, a large Regional Transmission Organization (RTO), held its most recent power capacity auction in July 2024, resulting in prices more than 800% higher than recorded a year earlier. Energy prices for power plants landed at $269.92 per megawatt-day, compared with $28.92 per megawatt-day just the year earlier. [5]
Capacity auctions are mandated events that balance consumer pricing protections with market reliability, capacity, and transmission considerations.
PJM’s July auction provides clear evidence that moving away from affordable fossil fuels—and rushing too quickly to intermittent and low-capacity renewables—will drive significant energy inflation and, someday soon, could have a devastating impact on the U.S. economy.
Not So Fast
With some 774 million people in the world still without access to electricity,[6] it’s obvious the previous energy transition to fossil fuels—much less renewables—is still going on, after hundreds of years. And the expectation is to completely switch from fossil fuels to renewables over the next few decades? Not so fast.
Today’s carbon emissions goals remain largely aspirational with marginal progress happening to reach them. These goals make for a great narrative, but the physical challenge of providing energy, infrastructure, and ongoing progress to eight billion people around the world is a stubborn reality to overcome. Experience paints a different picture. Energy inflation has arrived. Our national security is at risk. Our energy independence is waning. Millions around the world remain impoverished. As these and other unintended consequences of the renewable energy movement continue to surface, a new narrative is beginning to emerge—one based on data, evidence and real-world solutions.
Our energy policies should promote a practical, diverse mix of energy sources—a sensible mix that can adapt to market forces—an all-of-the-above energy policy that utilizes each resource’s individual strengths and unique physical properties—a policy where renewable energy works together with and compliments fossil-based sources of power—where fueling human prosperity is balanced with a commonsense approach to protecting our environment.
Sources:
[1] Fraser Institute: Reliance on fossil fuels remains virtually unchanged despite trillions for ‘clean energy’
[2] Mark P. Mills, Manhattan Institute: The Energy Transition Delusion: A Reality Reset, August 2022.
[3] Reuters:Global coal use at all-time high in 2023 – IEA
[4] Statista, Annual carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions worldwide from 1940 to 2023
[5] Reuters: PJM power auction results yield sharply higher prices
[6] IEA: World Energy Outlook 2022.